The Seismograph magnitude scale
Seismograph gives every market shock one number, its magnitude M, on a logarithmic scale like an earthquake's: each step of 1 is ten times the value.
The formula
M = log10(k × V) − 3, rounded to one decimal
- V is the event's value in US dollars: for a liquidation wave, everything liquidated in it; for a single position, the collateral seized or, on perpetual futures, the position size.
- k is the coefficient of the event's type. In this version it is 1 for every type.
- An event under $10,000 (k × V) gets no magnitude: it is below scale.
| Value | Magnitude |
|---|---|
| $10,000 | M 1.0 |
| $100,000 | M 2.0 |
| $1,000,000 | M 3.0 |
| $10,000,000 | M 4.0 |
| $100,000,000 | M 5.0 |
| $1,000,000,000 | M 6.0 |
A theft of $1.5 billion, the size of the Bybit hack of February 2025, would be M 6.2.
Types
| Type | V | k | On the site |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidation wave, position liquidation | Value liquidated on the covered DeFi venues | 1 | Now, marked "(on-chain)" |
| Hack or exploit | Value stolen; later returns are shown but do not change M | 1 | Later |
| Stablecoin depeg | Supply × deepest deviation from the peg | 1 | Later |
On-chain liquidation magnitudes measure DeFi venues only and are not yet comparable with hack or depeg magnitudes. In a large crash most liquidations happen on centralized exchanges, which are not covered yet; a wave's M therefore describes the on-chain part of it.
Versions and calibration
This is version v1. When centralized exchange liquidations are covered, the liquidation coefficient will be calibrated on whole-market values, the version will change and every event will be scored again; earlier magnitudes stay in each event's revision history.
Using the scale
You may quote magnitudes with a link to the event's page. Magnitudes and totals may not be used in financial products, indices or as a benchmark. They are estimates from public on-chain data, not verdicts.